The demise of the center and the victorious periphery.

Of the many issues Somalis is ailing with at the moment, i will try to discuss here two particularly critical matters: Change and continuity — Business as usual — in the exercise of political power; and the design and functioning of government institutions.

While the reconfiguration of state Presidentbuildings will remain a major project in Somalia but there were gains made albeit small, over the years by different administrations.

One of the key milestones accomplished by the previous administration was the erection of the federal member states -although I’m still critical to the models applied to approach their incorporation of the center. Since their inception, the federal member states enjoyed an uncensored legitimacy and even began tying direct thread with the transnational organizations and other states undermining the constitutional authority of the center on these aspects. However, on 8the Feb, 2017 come a new government who immediately challenged the power exercise of the federal member states. Although many scholars argued that the center should have used the “carrot and the stick” methodology to tame the member states in order to realign them to the system, but the incumbent hasn’t not only used the stick alone but they also named and ashamed them in every probable opportunity.

Another opportunity which had presented itself to the incumbent which i also believe the center had squandered is the unpredicted political change from Ethiopia which many asserted had been the de facto ruler of the federal member states and to an extent the center itself.

Has the president lost His Commanding power?

On 17th September, 2018, barely three hours after regional state leaders declared a ‘no cooperation’ stance with the Federal Government, the President sent out an invitation to the member state presidents to troop into Mogadishu for the National security council which the president convenes. But no-one turned up.

A few months later, the president sent another raven for FMS to come to Mogadishu for the National security council meeting. Yet again everybody turned him to deaf ears. In fact, this time they all trooped in Nairobi to meet the donors and foreign ambassadors to convey their grievances towards the administration. The communique of that meeting has underlined, to meet in Garowe and deliberate about the security, constitution, elections and resource sharing and many others. Surprisingly, the FMS invited and his PM to the gathering.
Will the president accept this invitation? Most Probably, Yes. As a matter of fact, president lost every battle with FMS. So he has no option now but to dance into their tone!

No channels shut yet, Mr President!

While giving a speech to a group of people in a hall in Nairobi, the president infamously claimed that his government ‘succeed’ to have shut an enormous (political) channel that was flooding to Somalia — distracting recovery. But that didn’t last long. A few month later, Kenya — due to a renewed rift with Somalia — has given the dissidents and the federal member states a safe heaven. Indeed, this newly found fountain will be of a game changer to Somalia’s political shuffling.

It’s 2 years now from the day the incumbent came into office and although there have been some undeniable milestones accomplished but there have been also a stagnation to number of priority tasks; like the security transition, the election procedure, constitution review, the war against terrorism, resources sharing and this is said to be due to the deadlock and the lack of political compromise, leadership failure and balkanization of the center and the member states by external actors.

What is the way forward now?

Although the incumbent tried fought tooth and nail to liberalised and democratise the power dichotomy of the country, however, the federal member states have been a rock to summon. For them its all about how to maintain the status quo and milk the fiefdoms they created. So, since their have been a cloud of uncertain hovering around Somalia lately, it’s wise for the center to make compromise and let be led by the member states. for real they have to concede a defeat!